Latest News
30.07.10
Thailand coal imports 1st half 2010View
Thailand has been steadily increasing its coal imports and unlike many others is also showing increases in imports over the first half of 2008 as well. In total some 8.4 Mt were imported in the first half of the year of which some 30% (2.6 Mt) was reported as coking coal however as the World Steel Association do not report any steel production in Thailand it is not exactly clear what this coking coal is being used for.30.07.10
Grain production fallsView
The IGC has issued its latest grain outlook showing that production is expected to fall as compared to their outlook a month ago. The expectation of a near 30 Mt fall is not a cause for concern at this stage in the trade year as with many harvests still to be gathered there is yet plenty that can change. In any event the IGC now expect production amounting to 651 Mt of wheat, 823 Mt of maize and 279 Mt of other grains. Trade is not expected to change at this stage and is still forecast to remain at 234 Mt (wheat 120 Mt, maize 88 Mt and other grains - mostly oats, barley and sorghum - 26 Mt).29.07.10
Saudi Aramco pushes on with Yanbu refineryView
Saudi Aramco has signed seven engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts with international and local contractors for its 400,000 bpd refinery in Yanbu. Several remaining construction packages will be awarded in the following months. Aramco is pushing on with the project alone after a partner stepped out of the agreement in April and has set up a company named Red Sea Refining Co. to handle the execution and operation of the plant. The latest development demonstrates the company’s “commitment to meeting future worldwide fuel demands”, according to a company statement. The refinery will process Arabian Heavy crude and produce 90,000 bpd of gasoline, 263,000 bpd of ultra-low sulphur diesel, 6,300 metric tonnes per day of coke and 1,200 tonnes per day of sulphur.28.07.10
Russian seaborne crude oil exports set to increase in AugustView
Russian seaborne crude oil exports will average 2.848m bpd in August, up from 2.840m bpd in July, according to port loading schedules published by Transneft. The August schedules re-introduce the port of Gdansk with expected volumes of 166,000 bpd, bringing total exports from the Baltic up to 1.466m bpd from the previous month’s 1.419m bpd. Gdansk had been left out of July schedules with volumes said to be re-routed via Novorossiysk, although some cargoes did end up loading from Gdansk in July. Loadings from Primorsk are set to fall by 118,000 bpd, mainly due to ongoing maintenance work at the port. Exports from the Black Sea port of Yuzhny are also resuming in August with a 113,000 bpd allocation. Total exports from the Black Sea will however drop by 40,000 bpd to 1.062m bpd month-on-month, with the port of Novorossiysk seeing a 153,000 bpd decline to 843,000 bpd.28.07.10
Germany iron and steelView
Germany produced some 22.7 Mt of crude steel in the first half of the year being a 64% increase on the quantity produced in the same period in 2009 (13.8 Mt) but - perhaps more significantly this is still less than the 24.4 Mt produced in the first half of 2008 before the economic crisis broke. Iron ore imports meanwhile have seen a 42% increase up to the end of April to reach 12.4 Mt but again this is still some 2 Mt less than the same period in 2008. Brazil, Canada, South Africa and Sweden between them have accounted for 90% of the countries supplies.27.07.10
Japan resumes selling from it's Strategic Petroleum ReserveView
The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has resumed selling Khafji crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) in Okinawa, with the first shipment since December 2007 sold in late April and about to be loaded for Mailiao, Taiwan. The 1.38m barrel cargo is said to be scheduled for loading in early August on a Japanese-owned VLCC. The METI plans to sell about 5.67m barrels of its heavy crude stocks by March 2011 through tenders to replace with lighter grades, reflecting a shift in domestic demand for lighter oil products. Japan now holds 94 days worth of consumption in its strategic reserves and 72 days in private stockpiles.27.07.10
Dry Bulk Fleet expansion 1st half 2010View
The dry bulk fleet expanded by some 340 ships amounting to 32 Mdwt in the first half of this year after allowing for the limited number of scrappings and other removals (some 46 ships of 1.6 Mdwt). At the same time a large number of ships were contracted for future construction (346/31.2 MDwt). This rapid expansion in the fleet - some 54 Mdwt (+13%) over the past 12 months has been a primary factor in the decline in earnings since May this year which have slumped from typically $48,000 pd for a Cape to $16,000 now in July.26.07.10
FSU product exports 1H2010View
Former Soviet Union (FSU) exports of feedstock vacuum gasoil (VGO) increased by 37,000 bpd in the first half of 2010 year-on-year, boosted by US demand, while fuel oil exports have increased by 122,000 bpd because of the consistent demand from Chinese and USG buyers who use it as feedstock for their upgrading units such as catalytic crackers. VGO has traded at a premium to Brent throughout the year encouraging exports, while narrow US refining margins encouraged the use of cracker units versus crude distillation units. These increases in Russian product exports from the Baltic and the Black Sea were largely offset by a 105,000 bpd decline in gasoline exports. Exports of middle distillates to a stagnant European diesel market have faced strong competition from Asia-Pacific and the US, whilst the last harsh winter and economic recovery have at the same time increased domestic consumption.26.07.10
Chinese coal imports and exports 1st half 2010View
Chinese coal import and export data just released shows that imports in the first half of this year were ahead by 68% and amounted to 81 Mt however this gives a slightly false impression as last year imports did not accelerate up to the higher levels averaging over 13 Mt monthly until June. If the second half of 2009 is compared to the first half of this year the totals are almost identical. Overall imports this year are expected to reach the 150-160 Mt level (2009: 127 Mt). For exports though the picture is more difficult for the exporters – Chinese coal exports used to be a significant generator of dry bulk demand especially for Supramax-Panamax tonnage. For example only five years ago exports exceeded 60 Mt annually while in 2004 exports reached 94 Mt; this year exports may fall below 20 Mt for the first time since 1993 when exports at that time were on an upward trajectory. Both of these changes represent changes in differentials of the price of domestic coal as compared to imports and exports plus the physical challenges within such a vast country.23.07.10
South Korean crude oil imports flat year on year View
South Korean crude oil imports averaged 2.33m bpd in the first half of the year, only 0.7% lower than the same period in 2009, according to preliminary data from the Korean National Oil Corp. About 83% of imports originated from Middle Eastern countries while Russian imports saw the largest percentage increase (+43.1%) year-on-year with the country tapping the new ESPO grade and larger quantities of Vityaz. For the month of June, crude oil imports averaged 2.25m bpd, an 8.3% increase year-on-year. Saudi Arabia accounted for 27.9% of the volumes while Russian volumes increased to 149,000 bpd from 76,000 bpd (+49.0%) in June 2009. Also notably, Indonesian imports were up by 63.3% year-on-year in June while imports from Iraq were down 82.4% to 85,000 bpd.
